Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to regain its upward momentum since it hit a high of $116,000 earlier this year, following a recent market crash. As of October 23, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $107,716, reflecting a 4.08% decline over the past week. This downturn has left many crypto investors wondering whether the next bull run is being held back by larger players in the market—namely, Bitcoin whales.
Investors Shifting from Futures to Spot Market
Recent market trends show a clear shift in investor behavior. Following a series of heavy liquidations on Binance in mid-October, investors have become increasingly cautious. As a result, many are turning away from the highly leveraged Futures market and gravitating towards the Spot market, which is considered a safer alternative in volatile times.
Since October 10, 2025, the cumulative volume of Bitcoin traded on the Spot market has surged dramatically. On a daily basis, trading volumes now fluctuate between $5 billion and $10 billion—up from a range of $3 billion to $5 billion seen just a month earlier. This sudden increase suggests that traders are opting for less risky positions, looking to accumulate Bitcoin without the risk of margin calls associated with Futures trading.
The Drop in Exchange Supply Ratio
Another interesting indicator of changing market dynamics is the decline in Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) on Binance. As of mid-October, the ESR reached 0.03, its lowest level since mid-2022. This figure is crucial because it indicates the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges. A low ESR signals that there is less Bitcoin on exchanges, which typically leads to reduced selling pressure.
Historically, such a decline in the ESR has been a precursor to significant price recoveries. When large holders (whales) reduce their sales and shift towards accumulation, it often sets the stage for a more sustainable bullish rally. Therefore, the reduced ESR could be a sign that long-term investors are holding back, preparing for a future price recovery.
Whale Behavior: Are Large Holders Hesitant?
While the decline in ESR suggests cautious optimism among retail investors, the actions of Bitcoin whales present a more complex picture. Despite the surge in Spot market activity, large holders seem less inclined to push the market higher. In fact, the Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) has surged to a monthly high of 0.556. This figure indicates that large holders are actively depositing Bitcoin into exchanges, likely in preparation for selling.
The surge in the Exchange Whale Ratio is largely attributed to “sharks”—Bitcoin holders with between 100 and 1,000 BTC. The behavior of these sharks is noteworthy because they have been responsible for a significant portion of the elevated Exchange Balance Change, which has remained around 117,000 BTC. Such deposits into exchanges often put downward pressure on prices, especially if the demand from buyers fails to keep up with the increasing supply.
Additionally, the Bitcoin Fund Flow Ratio has also spiked to 0.11, reinforcing the notion that large entities are pushing more Bitcoin into exchanges. In past market cycles, this type of increased exchange participation from whales has typically been followed by poor price performance, as higher supply on exchanges often leads to price suppression.
The Struggle Between Bulls and Bears
At the moment, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads. The actions of retail investors accumulating Bitcoin on the Spot market are in direct contrast to the behavior of large holders who seem to be preparing for a sell-off. This tension between buyers and sellers has created a market environment characterized by consolidation.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trading within a narrow range of $106,071 to $114,039, as both bulls and bears fight for control. If the demand from Spot market investors continues to absorb the selling pressure from whales, Bitcoin could break through this range and aim for a retest of the $116,000 level. However, if whales continue to push more Bitcoin onto exchanges without sufficient demand to absorb the supply, the price could remain stagnant or even dip further.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
The current market situation highlights the ongoing battle for dominance between large Bitcoin holders and retail investors. While retail traders seem to be cautiously optimistic, accumulating Bitcoin in the Spot market, the actions of whales could be preventing a full recovery. If the trend of increased whale activity on exchanges continues, Bitcoin could face prolonged consolidation in the short term.
However, if demand from the Spot market remains strong enough to absorb the growing supply, a breakout above the $114,000 mark could trigger a renewed bullish trend. Bitcoin’s future performance will likely depend on how these competing forces play out in the coming weeks.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain positive, the market’s short-term direction is uncertain. Investors will need to closely monitor whale activity and the ongoing shift in trading strategies to determine whether the next Bitcoin bull run is just around the corner or still some time away.
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